USA History of Space Flights [Part III. Fantastic Future]

After learning some basics about USA History of Space Flights [Part II. Present Presence], it's time to take a leap of faith and see into the future. Predicting such elusive things is more of a gamble, but let's take it anyway.

"The longer you look back, the farther you can look forward," said Winston Churchill. I want to use his thought to set the stage: Innovation doesn’t happen overnight, it's a gradual process, drawing upon centuries of scientific advancement. To understand our capabilities in space travel, we must explore our cosmic surroundings. Before dreaming of Mars colonization or intergalactic teleportation, let's first study the marvels of our own celestial neighborhood.

Our front- and backyard

We live in a quite spiral galaxy, the Milky Way. Zooming in, we find ourselves nestled within a typical planetary system, the Solar system, with our Sun and its eight orbiting planets. At a youthful age of slightly over 4.6 billion years, our neighborhood is relatively young in the grand scheme of the 13.82 billion-year-old universe.

Despite the conformity of our system, each planet is different, depending on its proximity to the Sun and the composition of its core. We should all remember these guys from school:

* Mercury with greatest temperature swings (up to 600°C)
* Slow Venus with its crazy atmospheric pressure (93 bars compared to Earth's 1)
* Close Mars with seasons and 25 hours in its day
* The biggest gas giant Jupiter with no solid surface
* Saturn with its icy rings and fastest winds in the Solar System
* The chillest Uranus and its tilted axis
* Fast Neptune with the strongest gravity pull after Jupiter

Home humble home

A perfect sequence of events and conditions has made Earth the perfect habitat for life. With its thick, oxygen-rich atmosphere and robust magnetic field shielding us from harmful radiation, our planet is a sanctuary. And don't forget to add a splash of water to all that. Water is so essential to everything live because it serves as a medium, helping organic compounds to mix with each other inside the cell.

Thus, we, as a species, have evolved within these nurturing conditions. To replicate such conditions on another planet would be the key to making it habitable. While no other celestial body in our Solar system quite matches Earth's glory, we can try terraforming, altering the conditions of other planets to resemble our own. The most suitable candidate is a neighboring Mars, an alluring prospect for many sci-fi writers from the past. Nowadays, the red planet is a very real and tangible goal in many space programs (SpaceX and NASA, for example).

But why Mars?

— Why not Venus? It’s a rocky planet, close to us, with a gravitational pull similar to ours, its atmosphere, if ‘purified’ from sulfuric acid, can be quite feasible. Except for average temperature of 450°C, atmospheric pressure 90 times greater than Earth's, that would crash you immediately, and an incredibly long day lasting 243 Earth days. So, not an option.

— Why not Mercury? Another terrestrial planet, yes, but with extreme temperature fluctuations ranging from +427°C to -173°C, no atmosphere to speak of, relentless solar radiation, and a vulnerability to comet and asteroid impacts due to its proximity to the Sun. That’s more than enough to decline it too.

— Gas giants, with their lack of a solid surface and vast distance from us, need not even be considered.

Thus, Mars is an official working draft. With its 25-hour day and tilted axis offering seasons, along with water in its ice caps. Every 26 months, it gets close to Earth, opening an opportunity for a 5-6 months one-way journey. Despite its thin atmosphere and notorious dust storms, innovative strategies have already been devised to tame this celestial body.

Time to say goodbye

Why the need to depart from our survival-friendly planet then? Picture the Interstellar movie plot: decreasing natural resources and food shortages ignited by natural disasters or epidemics. Or our Earth can easily become a target for comets, like in Greenland, or fall victim to sudden solar flares (2012 film). Let me continue with more vivid scenarios: a deadly virus turning everything upside down (see details in I am Legend); climate-induced catastrophes (The Day after Tomorrow), or ecosystem collapses (Mad Max). And let's not forget more unconventional threats, such as bioengineering gone wrong leading to dystopian scenarios in Blade Runner.

This dynamic isn't just fiction; it's all hypothetical developments that could unfold. It seems like the only reasonable way to save our species from extinction is to create a backup copy of the human race, and put it beyond the confines of Earth. Being a favourite tool of expansion throughout history, a good ol' colonization is key to our future survival. Though there are more opponents of that idea than followers. The main argument of the skeptics remains unchanged: we've got a handful of Earthly problems to be resolved first. Yet, these problems may persist indefinitely if we adhere to antiquated methods and resist change.

While public opinion often leans towards pessimism, it's the bold endeavors of individuals, or in this case, private companies, that propel progress. Enter SpaceX, Boeing (a century-old multinational corporation, nonetheless), and Blue Origin, spearheading innovation in the space industry. But we also have a government agency NASA yet criticized for its sluggishness in adapting to the future, beset by constant delays and budgetary constraints. Even if we solve the funding problem, we stumble upon the limitations of our current technologies. Let's take a closer look at that matter.

What tools we have in our pockets

In space, size matters in everything. Consider our own Solar System – it's immense. When we gaze up at the Moon in the night sky, it may seem deceptively close, yet it's actually a staggering 384,400 kilometers away. Apollo astronauts took 2 days and 16 hours, hurtling at speeds of 39,897 kilometers per hour, to reach the Moon. These are distances on a grand scale.

To make it to Mars, we'll need powerful rockets to carry huge spacecrafts with people and cargo. The more you want to take with you – the more power-packed rocket vehicle you need – the more fuel you need. However, this creates a paradox: excessive fuel slows down the spacecraft, rendering interstellar travel nearly impossible.

Even our nearest star, Proxima Centauri, lies 4.2 light years away – more than 200,000 times the distance from Earth to the Sun. That's equivalent to 50 million round trips to the Moon.

To get out there, we must revolutionize rocket engine development. Currently, we rely on chemical and electrical propulsion systems. Chemical engines, the most prevalent in space missions today, offer relatively low speeds (both NASA and Elon Musk are eyeing their use for Mars missions). These engines function by expelling gases at high velocities from their exhausts, generating thrust. Some satellites utilize electric propulsion, which is enough for their low-speed travel.

Beyond the tried-and-tested chemical and electrical propulsion methods, there exist theoretical concepts such as solar and nuclear propulsion. Nuclear fusion reactors could provide vast energy reserves for propulsion, while solar sails offer potential for achieving super-high speeds by harnessing energy from the Sun.

A nice and neat article (a must read!) on the rockets of the future that could carry us to the distant stars within a lifetime (not yet possible), as opposed to thousands of years (theoretically possible but not feasible).

The coolest ways to traverse deep space are pure fiction, absolutely out of reach, and depend on collecting fuel from the outside instead of taking it with us. Consider dark matter rockets, which promise an unlimited and efficient fuel source by using the mysterious energy of dark matter. Then there's the concept of a black hole starship, inspired by Arthur C. Clarke's science-fiction novel 'Imperial Earth', with a spacecraft propelled by the energy of a black hole. These ideas push the boundaries of imagination and science.

But let's push even further. Enter wormholes – hypothetical shortcuts through space and time, theorized to exist by Einstein's theory of general relativity. These cosmic tunnels offer a way to travel vast distances in the blink of an eye. However, to make them a reality, we'd need 'exotic matter' with properties that defy our current understanding of physics, serving as the key to stabilizing and traversing these theoretical constructs, effectively bridging the gap from point A to point B.

Consider government programs dead. Join the space billionaire race

In the 21st century, the space race takes a rebranding: government space agencies, primarily NASA, versus private space companies. While NASA adopts a cautious, step-by-step approach to human Mars exploration, private spaceflight companies, emerging from the early 2000s, are revolutionizing the approach to cosmic travel.

Everybody heard about SpaceX and a mighty meme-king Elon Musk. Something about Virgin Galactic and its eccentric leader Sir Richard Branson, and not that much about Blue Origin, a brain child of the richest person on Earth (at the time of writing) and founder of Amazon – Jeff Bezos. While these tech gents are big, well, on technology, they still need some mature infrastructure and space experience that somebody like NASA can trade off.

SpaceX has set its sights on Mars colonization as its primary mission, while its competitor Blue Origin is focusing on more immediate plans, starting with Moon missions. Interestingly, both companies, along with Virgin Galactic, have been contracted by NASA to develop various technologies for its Artemis program on returning humans back to the Moon in 2024. Even Virgin Galactic was contacted by NASA too for space tourism activities centered around the ISS.

It looks like marrying NASA's experience with the cutting-edge technology of private companies can finally get spacefaring off the ground. NASA's projected timeline for achieving another milestone is set in the 2030s. It's already been 40 years since the first robotic probes landed on Mars. But it's a completely different story with humans. International Space Station was the first step towards deep space research to understand human behavior in microgravity environments.

The next logical step should be a series of Moon missions to test humans' ability to live and work in space away from Earth. In February 2020, NASA have successfully tested its Orion spacecraft, intended to carry humans to Mars, through Moon flybys. Following this, plans include sending a robotic spacecraft to capture an asteroid and redirect it into the Moon's orbit for exploration by Orion astronauts, who will collect samples to be analyzed back on Earth.

If everything goes according to plan there, a round-trip robotic mission will be sent to Mars somewhere in the 2020s. If that again proves successful, a manned mission of 4–6 people will depart for Mars in the early 2030s.

SpaceX, a relatively young aerospace manufacturer at just 18 years old, has ambitious plans to land two cargo ships on Mars by 2024. The first would locate sources of water in the soil, while the second set up a chemical factory to convert that water and carbon dioxide from the Martian atmosphere into oxygen and methane rocket fuel for return trips.

Elon Musk is working on ways to make his Mars colony plan affordable. The first revolutionary step was the introduction reusable rockets, a very-very-very big deal on all levels. In December 2015, Falcon 9, a reusable rocket, made its first successful return, marking a pivotal moment in space exploration before our eyes. Another major milestone came in March 2020 when SpaceX's Crew Dragon delivered NASA astronauts to the ISS (before that they were using the more expensive Soyuz space vehicle to get there).

"If one can figure out how to effectively reuse rockets just like airplanes, the cost of access to space will be reduced by as much as a factor of a hundred. A fully reusable vehicle has never been done before. That really is the fundamental breakthrough needed to revolutionize access to space."

Elon

Once the transportation is figured out, life support is the next thing on the list that needs careful consideration. The leading idea involves biodegradation, collecting the crew's breath, liquid, and solid waste to make plants and other life forms recycle it into food, water, and air. This would reduce the need for resupply missions and help ensure humans' long-term survival. It would also make a colony vastly more sustainable, affordable, and independent.

Space refueling stations and Moon bases are a must for further space exploration. Elon promises that reusable rockets and Mars-made spacecraft fuel will make trips to Mars more or less affordable, ranging from $200,000 to $300,000 per ticket. The first manned missions are scheduled for 2024, with passengers enjoying restaurants, cinemas, and sports clubs during the 4-5 month journey.

• 1 million: the number of people SpaceX hopes to transport to Mars over the next 50 to 100 years.
• 1,000: the minimum number of ships SpaceX aims to send to Mars at every opportunity.
• 100: the minimum number of passengers carried aboard each ITS ship. It could take 10,000 flights to get 1 million people to Mars. But the ships may end up transporting about 200 people apiece.

Our current strategies for unlocking futuristic prospects

As 10, 20, 25 years ticked by following the historic human landing on the Moon, it seemed more like a culmination rather than a beginning of space exploration. However, the private sector injected fresh vigor into the industry. In 1996, a private foundation, led by engineer and entrepreneur Peter Diamandis, catalyzed this transformation by announcing a space competition offering a $10 million prize for a private company capable of launching a reusable crewed spacecraft into space twice within two weeks.

Through years of trial and error, in 2004, the SpaceShipOne project won the Ansari X Prize, backed by $100 million in investments. Private companies have started stirring the space industry, relying on an unconventional approach and tech innovation. The most obvious way to attract huge funding was to create a space tourism market, with the rapidly growing number of millionaires and billionaires being its target audience.

At first, we tried to modify our current options for that purpose. The International Space Station (ISS) briefly served as the sole destination for space tourists from 2001 to 2009. Seven people visited the space lab and spent 12 straight days side by side with scientists in zero gravity. Such once-in-a-lifetime experience cost them approximately $20 million per person. Due to the lethal accident during one of the launches, this type of millionaire vacation is over for now (too costly and hard to merge with the scientific programs).

The first private company that made a hot and never-seen-before offering to the general public was Virgin Galactic – selling to well-off passengers 6 exclusive minutes of weightlessness and Earth gazing at the altitude of 120 km. Priced at $250,000 per ticket, with over 700 customers already signed up, the company has amassed over $13 million in deposits for future flights. However these spac-ish promises are being constantly delayed due to vehicle testing issues.

Meanwhile, Blue Origin, the offspring of Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos, is a curious dark horse in the private space race. Being relatively quiet in the media, the company is serious about sending tourists on sub-orbital flights. The New Shepard vehicle has already been tested for these purposes, with an estimated ticket price around $200,000. Orbital flights are also on the Blue Origin list. The New Glenn rocket was already selected by NASA as a potential fit for future missions, including the one to the Moon.

And of course the most recognizable and media-fluent of them all - SpaceX and its charismatic leader Elon Musk. Bringing into play reusable rockets has revolutionized the industry by boosting space exploration ambitions. A few days back, a press release announcing details on the Ax-1 mission was posted online. This event that will take place in the early 2021 marks the first flight of private citizens on a commercial SpaceX's Crew Dragon capsule. For $55 million, each of 3 passengers will get a ride to the ISS and spend there 8 days. The strategy to conquer the cosmos begins with commercialization, and there are no doubts that the foundation is being laid before our eyes.

"Everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits of the world"

I want to finish the obviously inexhaustible topic of the future with an ingenious quote from Arthur Schopenhauer, a philosopher representing the pessimistic movement. Do you see a twist here?

The goals set both by government space agencies and private companies for the next 50 years look like this:

• Automated and robotic exploration of the Solar System and beyond
• Telescopic exploration of deep space
• Development of innovative spacecraft
• Crewed spaceflight and settlements on planets
• Space tourism
• Mining of other planets

Let’s hope to live through at least some of these major discoveries. Personally, I dream of witnessing the first Mars colony settlement and its development. With such an abundance of knowledge, resources, and access to it – everyone can contribute to this fantastic future and the next level of our civilization :)

On this positive note, with a shot from the '2001: Space Odyssey', I want to highly recommend a mind-blowing, eye-opening, and quite shocking sci-fi read from Peter Watts "Blindsight". This novel offers a fresh perspective on how a first contact with hyped aliens might look like. No, they don't speak English, don't have traditional bodies, and are unburdened by consciousness ;)

Thanks for this short three-post space ride with me! See you somewhere in the future ➼